广发证券：予周大福“买入”评级 合理价值19.99港元

予周大福“买入”评级，合理价值19.99港元

广发证券 recently assigned a "buy" rating to Chow Tai Fook (01929), with a reasonable value of 19.99 Hong Kong dollars per share. The brokerage firm projected Chow Tai Fook’s consolidated net profits for the fiscal years 2026-2028 at 79.9 billion, 90.26 billion, and 98.18 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 35.0%, 13.0%, and 8.8%. Based on comparable company valuations, the firm maintained a 25x price target for the 2026 financial year.

Key Observations from the Report:

1. Robust Profit Growth and Dividend Payouts:

   • Chow Tai Fook reported solid first-half 2026 financial performance, with revenue of 389.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-over-year decline of 1.1%, and operating profits of 68.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-over-year increase of 0.7%. The operating margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 17.5%.
   • The company maintained its high dividend policy, distributing a half-year dividend of 0.22 Hong Kong dollars per share, yielding an impressive 85.7% dividend payout ratio.

2. Strong Sales Performance in Key Product Categories:

   • Price and Jewelry: The company demonstrated resilience in profitability, supported by significant growth in its price and jewelry segments. In the first half of 2026, price and jewelry same-store sales in Mainland China and the Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions grew by 2.6% and 4.4% respectively.
   • Branded Products: The company’s branded products, including its signature collections, continued to drive growth. First-half 2026, price and jewelry same-store sales in Mainland China and other regions surged by 8.3% and 6.1% respectively. The average prices of price and jewelry products saw notable increases, while the company’s half-year revenue from price and jewelry products rose by 9.3%, accounting for 31.8% of total revenue and maintaining a gross margin of approximately 30.5%.

3. Optimization of Retail Network:

   • The company has been actively optimizing its retail network, focusing on enhancing store efficiency. As of the first half of 2026, Chow Tai Fook operated 6,041 stores, a net increase of 603 compared to the beginning of the period.
   • The company has been actively introducing high-efficiency stores and optimizing its store layout. The average monthly sales of newly opened stores in 2026 reached 1.3 million Hong Kong dollars, a 72% increase compared to the first half of 2025. Furthermore, since October, the company has maintained a high growth trajectory in its terminal sales, with a 33.9% year-over-year increase in sales from October 1 to November 18 compared to the 4.1% growth in July and August.